Annual growth in the GDP deflator was 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2023, 4.4 percentage points higher than our March forecast (see Chart 2.6). The change was spread across components, with higher-than-expected private consumer expenditure inflation, a higher implied price of government output, and a faster recovery in the terms of trade.[6] We expect the GDP deflator to average 7.0 per cent growth over 2023. https://adprun.net/how-to-void-a-check/ We then forecast a rapid easing in inflation in 2024, as private consumption inflation moderates, and the terms of trade stabilise. In Box 2.2, we explore the changes in the composition of inflation between our March and November forecasts, and their implications for the public finances. And in Chapter 5, we present some illustrative alternative inflation scenarios to discuss their different fiscal consequences.
The operating expenses section contains a number of line items that may instead be classified as selling, general and administrative expenses. It includes all expenses required to run the business that were not already included in the cost of goods sold. These expenses cover the areas of sales, marketing, IT, risk management, human resources, accounting, and finance.
Chair’s statement
One of the fundamentals of accounting is that assets equal liabilities plus equity. Banks and non-financial entities have these items in common, but they start to differ from there. A nonfinancial company may have working capital, intangible assets, accounts payable, research, and design, whereas a bank would not have these items but instead have deposits, loans, and property. Interest revenue captures the interest payments the bank receives on the loans it issues. Other times, this line will consolidate gross interest revenue and deduct interest expense to find net interest revenue. This interest expense is the direct interest expense paid to the deposits used to fund the loans, and does not include interest expense from general debt.
- Many recipients of e-statements still print out their statements at home, preferring to keep a permanent record.
- Through the hub customers can get access to free and independent advice with support to help them manage their finances.
- Similarly, there is considerable uncertainty around the participation rate of inward migrants, which could be higher or lower than we have assumed.
- Customers deposit money at the bank for which they receive a relatively small amount of interest.
- The right-hand panel of Chart 2.5 shows how some of the forecast errors due to these shocks fell well outside our historic distribution.
- Depreciation and amortization are non-cash expenses that are created by accountants to spread out the cost of capital assets such as Property, Plant, and Equipment (PP&E).
In addition to public sector net debt (PSND), both including and excluding the Bank of England (ex BoE), the broader balance sheet metrics we forecast include public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) and public sector net worth (PSNW). To assist in the assessment of the affordability of debt, we produce forecasts of debt interest costs both as a share of GDP and of government revenue. 5.9 The £13.0 billion of headroom against the fiscal mandate in this forecast, while representing an increase on the November 2022 and March 2023 forecasts, is still well below the average headroom of previous Chancellors. The reduction in the SCAPE rate reflects our more pessimistic view on long term economic growth as set out in the 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report. All else equal, this reduces the expected future tax revenues available to pay for future pension payments. So, in isolation, the SCAPE rate change suggests the public finances are less sustainable than previously thought.
Bank Income Statement
It also expects to receive a small interest payment, using the central bank’s prime rate. If interest rates rise, banks can charge a higher rate on their variable-rate loans and a higher rate on their new fixed-rate loans. If interest rates rise, banks tend to earn more interest income, but when rates fall, banks are at risk as interest income declines. Interest rate risk is the spread between interest paid on deposits and received on loans over time.
Nominal earnings growth is then broadly steady until 2028, when it rises to 2.8 per cent as the output gap closes. 2.29 We expect the economy to move from the current modest amount of excess demand (outlined in paragraph 2.17) towards a modest degree of excess supply, with output gap bottoming out at -0.9 per cent of potential output in the middle of 2025. This reflects continued subdued real GDP growth in the face of weak real wage growth, higher interest rates and fading fiscal support. As these factors fade, GDP growth picks up What Financial Statement Lists Retained Earnings? to rates above potential output growth and the negative output gap closes by the forecast horizon. The trough in the output gap is 0.7 percentage points higher than March and around two years later, reflecting the unexpected resilience of the economy in the face of the recent energy price shock, counterbalanced by interest rates rising by more than expected. Policy measures in the Autumn Statement that boost demand are expected to lift the trough in the output gap by 0.1 percentage points relative to our pre-measures forecast.
Notes & Data Providers
The net lending position of households then strengthens by the end of 2024 as household incomes recover, settling at around 1½ per cent over the rest of the forecast. During the pandemic and energy crisis, fiscal support to the economy resulted in a large government deficit, balanced by large surpluses for households and, to a lesser extent, corporations. The corporate sector is expected to move from its recent net lending position to one of balance over the forecast period as investment rises. Mirroring the household and corporate sector, the government balance narrows over the forecast horizon as the fiscal deficit falls. And borrowing from the rest of the world gradually reduces, as the current account deficit narrows. 2.39 Real household disposable income (RHDI) has proved unexpectedly resilient since our March forecast (as discussed in detail in Box 2.2 of our latest Forecast evaluation report).
